Influence of climate drivers and fishing effort on fish stock condition using dynamic factor analysis: a case study from the Caspian Sea

Hasan Fazli; Gholam Reza Daryanabard; Akbar Pourgholami; Seyed Abbas Hoseini; Mohammad Reza Mirzaei; Parto Bahreini

doi:10.3989/scimar.05546.089

Autores/as

Hasan Fazli Caspian Sea Ecology Research Centre, Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1172-105X
Gholam Reza Daryanabard Caspian Sea Ecology Research Centre, Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5099-9196
Akbar Pourgholami Inland Waters Aquaculture Research, Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5020-7523
Seyed Abbas Hoseini Inland Water Stocks Research Centre, Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-2945
Mohammad Reza Mirzaei Offshore Fisheries Research Centre, Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0885-162X
Parto Bahreini Colangelo College of Business, Grand Canyon University https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1476-2020

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.05546.089

Palabras clave:

Abundancia, factor de condición, inmaduros, grandes reproductores, factores impulsados por el clima, esfuerzo pesquero, análisis factorial dinámico, aguas costeras

Resumen

Exploramos el impacto potencial de factores climáticos (patrón Atlántico Este-Oeste de Rusia EA_WR, nivel de la superficie del mar SSL, temperatura de la superficie del mar SST, descargas fluviales RD) junto con el esfuerzo pesquero E en los cambios en la demografía de las especies acuáticas. Se empleó el análisis factorial dinámico (DFA) para los índices de captura anual Cat, abundancia Abu, alevines liberados FR, biomasa del estoc reproductor SSB, porcentaje de inmaduros Imm, mega-reproductores Meg y factor de condición relativa Kn de los datos de Chelon aurata y Rutilus kutum recogidos durante 30 años. De 324 modelos DFA, el modelo óptimo para ambas especies incluyó una matriz R “diagonal y desigual” con SST, SSL y E como covariables exploratorias, revelando una tendencia común para C. aurata y SST y SSL con dos tendencias comunes para R. kutum. Dentro de la tendencia común para C. aurata, Abu y SSB mostraron una fuerte correlación positiva con la tendencia 1. En el caso de R. kutum, la primera tendencia común mostró una correlación positiva con Cat, Abu y SSB, y una relación negativa con IMM. Además, el aumento de SST y la disminución de SSL afectan negativamente la condición de las especies. Este estudio enfatiza el monitoreo y la gestión integrados para sustentar las especies de peces y el ecosistema, abogando por estrategias adaptativas para contrarrestar los factores de estrés ambiental y los efectos antropogénicos.

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