Long-term regional trend and variability of mean sea level during the satellite altimetry era

Quang-Hung Luu; Qing Wu; Pavel Tkalich; Ge Chen

doi:10.3989/scimar.04691.05A

Autores/as

Quang-Hung Luu Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology - School of Interdisciplinary Studies, Vietnam National University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7771-9836
Qing Wu Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7430-7169
Pavel Tkalich College of Information Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7527-0740
Ge Chen Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore - Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4868-5179

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.04691.05A

Palabras clave:

tendencia regional del nivel del mar, subida del nivel del mar, variabilidad climática, Oscilación Sur de El Niño (ENSO), Oscilaciones Decenales del Pacífico (PDO)

Resumen

El aumento y la reducción del nivel medio del mar en los océanos del planeta no son valores uniformes. Su comportamiento a largo plazo y su variabilidad están íntimamente ligados a las fluctuaciones y cambios de los sistemas climáticos. En este estudio, los patrones de cambio del nivel del mar, derivados de datos altimétricos obtenidos en el periodo de 1993 a 2015, se dividieron en oscilaciones a gran escala y se compararon con factores climáticos prevalecientes obtenidos de un análisis de Función Ortogonal Empírica. Cuando se toman en cuenta la Oscilación Sur de El Niño (ENSO) y las Oscilaciones Decenales del Pacífico (PDO), el cambio del nivel del mar deducido de una regresión múltiple produce mejores estimaciones que una regresión linear simple al tener coeficientes de determinación con un valor más grande e intervalos de confianza con valores más estrechos. Los patrones regionales asociados con los factores climáticos variaron considerablemente para diferentes cuencas, notablemente en las regiones orientales y occidentales del océano Pacífico. Se observa que las PDO mostraron un impacto más importante en el cambio espacial a largo plazo de la media del nivel del mar que la ENSO en varias partes de los océanos Índico y Pacífico, al igual que en las regiones subtropicales y alrededor de la línea del Ecuador. Se necesitan mayores mejoras en las técnicas de descomposición de señales y entendimiento físico de los sistemas climáticos para representar más precisamente la influencia de los factores climáticos en la media del nivel regional del mar.

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