Evidence of climate-driven regime shifts in Adriatic Sea fisheries

Elvis Kamberi; Edmond Hala; Marco Kule; Christian Möllmann

doi:10.3989/scimar.05566.108

Authors

Elvis Kamberi Department of Aquaculture and Fisheries, Agricultural University of Tirana - Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IFM), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1642-3609
Edmond Hala Department of Aquaculture and Fisheries, Agricultural University of Tirana https://orcid.org/0009-0005-1341-6050
Marco Kule Department of Aquaculture and Fisheries, Agricultural University of Tirana - Directory of Fisheries and Aquaculture and Policies and Programmes, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5273-5679
Christian Möllmann Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IFM), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9161-6342

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.05566.108

Keywords:

abrupt changes, instability, sea warming, fisheries, Adriatic ecosystem, changepoint, regime shifts

Abstract

Marine ecosystems can undergo abrupt changes due to the interaction between human activities and environmental drivers. These changes can result in a non-linear response, causing the system to shift to a different state, known as a regime shift. Such shifts imply changes in the structure, dynamics and functioning of ecosystems, ultimately impacting on the services they provide to humans. Additionally, such abrupt changes can have serious implications for the effectiveness of management measures, hindering the sustainable exploitation of marine resources and affecting their overall well-being. In our study, we adopted a multi-method approach to test for abrupt changes in Adriatic Sea fishery landings over five decades (1970–2020) and their potential connection with climate change. The ensemble of statistical changepoint analyses applied here identified that the fish community experienced an instability period during the 1990s under the influence of a changing climate, as indicated by significant correlations between fish landings and climate indices. Our study reveals important insights into the development of Adriatic Sea fishery landings under climate change and provides important knowledge for decision-making, sustainable fishery management and preserving the biodiversity and economic viability of the fishery.

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