Tangled ecosystem models: the temptation of siren songs and silence

Authors

  • Javier Ruiz Department of Coastal Ecology and Management, Instituto de Ciencias Marinas de Andalucia (ICMAN-CSIC)
  • Sakari Kuikka FEM group, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.03575.20A

Keywords:

ecosystem models, Bayesian, ecosystem approach, uncertainty

Abstract


At a meeting on marine ecosystem modelling held in Barcelona in November 2010, a wide range of tools were introduced by their developers. An officer of the European Commission was invited to the meeting as a key client of these tools, and he severely criticized the tools presented as being useless. This criticism led to a strong reaction by the modellers and an interesting debate. In this paper we summarize part of this debate, focusing on one of the potential reasons why final users are not using these tools: the isomorphism between the ecosystem and its deterministic representation through mathematical equations is fragile and a new generation of maps is necessary to represent the intrinsic uncertainty of their dynamics through models.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Box G.E.P., Draper N.R. 1987. Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics). Wiley, 688 pp.

Bueno O., French S., Ladyman S. 2003. On representing the relationship between the mathematical and the empirical. Philos. Sci. 69: 452-473. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/342456

Casini M., Hjelm J., Molinero J-C., Lövgren J., Cardinale M., Bartolino V., Belgrano A., Kornilov, G. 2009. Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts in pelagic marine ecosystems. PNAS. 106: 197-202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806649105 PMid:19109431    PMCid:2629246

Fasham M.J.R., Ducklow H.W. McKelvie S.M. 1990. A nitrogen-based model of plankton dynamics in the oceanic mixed layer. J. Mar. Res. 48: 591-639.

Follows M.J., Dutkiewicz S., Grant S., Chisholm S.W. 2007. Emergent Biogeography of Microbial Communities in a Model Ocean. Science 315: 1843-1846. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1138544 PMid:17395828

Hoeting J., Madigan D., Raftery A., Volinsky C. 1999. Bayesian Model Averaging. Stat. Sci. 14: 382-401.

Jensen F.V. 2001. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Longhurst A. 2006. The sustainability myth. Fish. Res. 81: 107-112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2006.06.022

Ludwig D., Hilborn R., Walters C. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: lessons from history. Science 260: 17-36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.260.5104.17 PMid:17793516

Lynch D.R., McGillicuddy Jr. D.J., Werner F.E. 2009. Skill assessment for coupled biological/physical models of marine systems. J. Mar. Syst. 76: 1-3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.002

Peters R.H. 1991. A Critique for Ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 384 pp.

Punt A.E., Hilborn R. 1997. Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis: the Bayesian approach. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 7: 35-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018419207494

Steffen W.L. 1996. A periodic table for ecology? A chemist’s view of plant functional types. J. Veget. Sci. 7: 425-430. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3236286

Downloads

Published

2012-03-30

How to Cite

1.
Ruiz J, Kuikka S. Tangled ecosystem models: the temptation of siren songs and silence. scimar [Internet]. 2012Mar.30 [cited 2022Oct.2];76(1):191-4. Available from: https://scientiamarina.revistas.csic.es/index.php/scientiamarina/article/view/1329

Issue

Section

Discussion articles

Most read articles by the same author(s)