Modelling the sequential geographical exploitation and potential collapse of marine fisheries through economic globalization, climate change and management alternatives

Gorka Merino; Manuel Barange; Lynda Rodwell; Christian Mullon

doi:10.3989/scimar.2011.75n4779

Autores/as

Gorka Merino Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Manuel Barange Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Lynda Rodwell Marine Institute, University of Plymouth
Christian Mullon Unité de recherche Ecosystèmes d’Upwelling, Centre de Recherches Halieutiques

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2011.75n4779

Palabras clave:

modelización de pesquerías, explotación secuencial, globalización económica, cambio climático, gestión de pesquerías

Resumen

La producción pesquera mundial ha superado su máximo potencial y parece estar en declive. Esta tendencia es el resultado de una sucesión de desarrollo, sobreexplotación, agotamiento, y en algunos casos, colapso de los stocks pesqueros individuales. Este proceso conecta recursos distantes a nivel geográfico. Esta secuencia es a menudo atribuida al efecto combinado de una gestión deficiente, consideraciones económicas y efectos ambientales pero la influencia de cada uno de estos factores suele ser difícil de determinar. En el presente trabajo hemos utilizado un modelo bioeconómico global para explorar los efectos conjuntos de la variabilidad climática, presiones económicas y medidas de gestión para producir o evitar esta secuencia. El modelo muestra como una combinación de variabilidad de origen climático en los stocks, el aumento de la demanda de productos marinos y una gestión deficiente es capaz de dirigir las pesquerías mundiales a través de un proceso de desarrollo, sobreexplotación, colapso y recuperación similar a los patrones observados. Además, mostramos cómo el patrón secuencial de sobreexplotación puede emerger como una propiedad endógena de la interacción entre fluctuaciones regionales y un mercado globalizado. Esta situación es evitable con una gestión adaptativa de los recursos que asegure la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de producción regionales en un contexto de cambio y mercados globales. Se concluye con que una gestión global de los recursos es necesaria para garantizar la óptima producción de productos de origen marino y la conservación de los ecosistemas.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Anderson, C.N.K., C.-H. Hsieh, S.A. Sandin, R. Hewitt, A. Hollowed, J. Beddington, R.M. May and G. Sugihara. – 2008. Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature, 452: 835-839. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06851 PMid:18421346

Arias-Screiber, M., M. Ñiquen and M. Bouchou. – 2010. Adapting to climate change – lessons from the Peruvian anchovy fishery on how to cope with extreme climatic events and environmental variability. Effects of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting Impacts, Assessing Ecosystem Responses, and Evaluating Management Strategies. 26-29th April 2010, Sendai, Japan.

Arnason, R. – 2006. Global warming, small pelagic fisheries and risk. In: Hanneson R., M. Barange and S.J. Herrick (eds.), Climate change and the economics of the world’s fisheries. Edwar Elgar Publishing Limited, pp. 1-32. Cheltenham (UK).

Barange, M. and R.I. Perry. – 2009. Physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture. FAO Fisheries Technical Reports.

Behrenfeld, M.J., R.T. O’Malley, D.A. Siegel, C.R. McClain, J.L. Sarmiento, G.C. Feldman, A.J. Milligan, P.G. Falkowski, R.M. Letelier and E.S. Boss. – 2006. Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity. Nature, 444: 752-755. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature05317 PMid:17151666

Berkes, F., T.P. Hughes, R.S. Steneck, J.A. Wilson, D.R. Bellwood, B. Crona, C. Folke, L.H. Gunderson, H.M. Leslie, J. Norberg, M. Nystrom, P. Olsson, H. Osterblom, M. Scheffer and B. Worm. – 2006. Globalization, roving bandits, and marine resources. Science, 311: 1557-1558. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1122804 PMid:16543444

Brander, K. – 2007. Global fish production and climate change. PNAS 104:19709-19714. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702059104 PMid:18077405 PMCid:2148362

Briones, R. M. – 2006. Projecting future fish supplies using stock dynamics and demand. Fish Fish., 7(4): 303-315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2006.00228.x

Chavez, F.P., J. Ryan, S.E. Lluch-Cota and C.M. Niquen. – 2003. From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific ocean. Science, 299: 217-221. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1075880 PMid:12522241

Cheung, W.W.L., V.W.Y. Lam, J.L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson and D. Pauly. – 2009. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fish., 10(3): 235-251. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

Christensen, V., S. Guénette, J.J. Heymans, C.J. Walters, R. Watson, D. Zeller and D. Pauly. – 2003. Hundred-year decline of North Atlantic predatory fishes. Fish Fish., 4: 1-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1467-2979.2003.00103.x

Clark, C.W., G. Munro and U.R. Sumaila. – 2005. Subsidies, buybacks and sustainable fisheries. J. Environ. Econ. Manage., 50: 47-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2004.11.002

Company, J.B., P. Puig, F. Sardá, A. Palanques and M. Latasa. – 2008. Climate influence on deep sea populations. PLoS ONE. p. e1431. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001431 PMid:18197243 PMCid:2174526

Curtis, F. – 2009. Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade. Ecolog. Econ., 69(2): 427-434. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.08.020

Cury, P.M., Y.–J. Shin, B. Planque, J.M. Durant, J.M. Fromentin, S. Kramer-Schadt, Stenseth, M. Travers and V. Grimm. – 2008. Ecosystem oceanography for global change fisheries. Trends Ecol. Evol., 23: 338-346. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2008.02.005

Delgado, C.L., N. Wada, M.W. Rosegrant, S. Meijer and M. Ahmed. – 2003. Fish to 2020: Supply and demand in changing global markets, Washington, D.C. (US) and Penang (Malaysia), 226 pp.

De Oliveira, J.A.A., A. Uriarte and B.A. Roel. – 2005. Potential improvements in the management of Bay of Biscay anchovy by incorporating environmental indices as recruitment predictors. Fish. Res., 75: 2-14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2005.05.005

Essington, T.E., A.H. Beaudreau and J. Wiedenmann. – 2006. Fishing through marine food webs. PNAS., 103: 3171-3175. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0510964103 PMid:16481614 PMCid:1413903

EU. – 2009. Green Paper. Reform of the Common Fisheries Policy by the Commission of the European Communities.

FAO. – 2007. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, Rome.

Garcia, S.M. – 2009. Rising to depletion? Towards a dialogue on the state of national marine fisheries. World Bank, Washington DC.

Gordon, H.S. – 1954. The economic theory of a common-property resource: the fishery. J. Polit. Economy, 62: 124-142. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/257497

Hilborn, R. and C.J. Walters. – 1992. Quantitative fisheries stock assessment: choice, dynamics and uncertainty. Chapman and Hall, New York, 570 pp.

Hoggarth, D.D., S. Abeyasekera, R. Arthur, J. Beddington, R.W. Burn, A.S. Halls, G.P. Kirkwood, M. McAllister, P. Medley, C.C. Mees, G.B. Parkes, G. Pilling, R.C. Wakeford and R.L. Welcomme. – 2006. Stock assessment for fishery management. A framework guide to the stock assessment tools of the Fisheries Management Science Programme, RomeHsieh, C.-H., S.C. Reiss, J.R. Hunter, J.R. Beddington, R.M. May and G. Sugihara. – 2006. Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature, 443: 859-862. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature05232 PMid:17051218

Kirby, M.X. – 2004. Fishing down the coast: historical expansion and collapse of oyster fisheries along continental margins. PNAS, 101: 13096-13099. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0405150101 PMid:15326294 PMCid:516522

Hsieh, C.-H., H.J. Kim, W. Watson, E. Di Lorenzo and G. Sugihara. – 2009. Climate driven changes in abundance and distribution of larvae of oceanic fishes in the southern California region. Glob. Change Biol., 15: 237-2152. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01875.x

Kristofersson, D. and J.L. Anderson. – 2004. Structural breaks in the fishmeal-soybean meal price relationship. In: Discussion papers of the Norwegian University of Life Sciences.

Lackey, R.T. – 2005. Fisheries: history, science, and management. In: Lehr J.H., Keeley J. (eds.) Water Encyclopedia: Surface and Agricultural Water, pp. 121-129. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., Publishers, New York.

Larkin, P.A. – 1977. An epitaph for the concept of maximum sustainable yield. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc., 106: 1-11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1577/1548-8659(1977)106<1:AEFTCO>2.0.CO;2

Lleonart, J. and G. Merino. – 2010. Immediate maximum economic yield; a realistic fisheries economic reference point. ICES J. Mar. Sci., 67: 577-582. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp256

Maynou, F. – 2008. Environmental causes of the fluctuations of red shrimp (Aristeus antennatus) landings in the Catalan Sea. J. Mar. Syst., 71: 294-302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.09.008

Merino, G., F. Maynou and A. Garcia-Olivares. – 2007. Effort dynamics in a fisheries bioeconomic model: A vessel level approach through Game Theory. Sci. Mar., 71: 537-550.

Merino, G., M. Barange and C. Mullon. – 2010a. Climate variability and change scenarios for a marine commodity: Modelling small pelagic fish, fisheries and fishmeal in a globalized market. J. Mar. Syst., 81: 196-205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.010

Merino, G., M. Barange, C. Mullon and L. Rodwell. – 2010b. Impacts of global environmental change and aquaculture expansion on marine ecosystems. Global Environ. Change., 20: 586-596. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.008

Mora, C., R.A. Myers, M. Coll, S. Libralato, T.J. Pitcher, U.R. Sumaila, D. Zeller, R. Watson, K.J. Gaston and B. Worm. – 2009. Management effectiveness of the World’s marine fisheries. PLoS Biology, 7:e1000131. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1000131 PMid:19547743 PMCid:2690453

Mullon, C., J.F. Mittaine, O. Thébaud, G. Péron, G. Merino and M. Barange. – 2009. Modeling the global fishmeal and fish oil markets. Natural Res. Modeling, 22: 564-609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-7445.2009.00053.x

Nagurney, A. – 1993. Network economics. A variational inequality approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

O’Brien, K.L. and R. M. Leichenko. – 2000. Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environ. Change, 10: 221-232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(00)00021-2

Oakerson, R.J. – 1992. Analyzing the commons: A framework. In: Bromley D.W. (ed.), Making the commons work: Theory, practice and policy, pp. 41-59. ICS Press, San Franciso, California.

Orensanz, J.M., J. Armstrong, D. Armstrong and R. Hilborn. – 1998. Crustacean resources are vulnerable to serial depletion -the multifaceted decline of crab and shrimp fisheries in the Greater Gulf of Alaska. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish., 8: 117-176. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008891412756

Pauly, D., V. Christensen, J. Dalsgaard, R. Froese and Jr. F. Torres. – 1998. Fishing Down Marine Food Webs. Science, 279: 860-863. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.279.5352.860 PMid:9452385

Pauly, D., V. Christensen, S. Guénette, T.J. Pitcher, U.R. Sumaila, C.J. Walters, R. Watson and D. Zeller. – 2002. Towards sustainability in world fisheries. Nature, 418: 689-695. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01017 PMid:12167876

Pinnegar, J.K., D. Viner, D. Hadley, S. Dye, M. Harris, F. Berkout and M. Simpson. – 2006. Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems. Cefas, Lowestoft.

Pauly, D., J. Alder, E. Bennett, V. Christensen, P. Tyedmers and R. Watson. – 2003. The future for fisheries. Science, 302: 1359-1361. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1088667 PMid:14631031

Scales, H., A. Balmford, M. Liu, Y. Sadovy and A. Manica. – 2006. Keeping Bandits at Bay? Science, 313: 612-614. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.313.5787.612c PMid:16888119

Schaefer, M. – 1954. Some aspects of the dynamics of populations important to the management of the commercial Marine fisheries. Bull. Inter-Am. Trop. Tuna Comm., 1: 27-56.

Seijo, J.C., O. Defeo and S. Salas. – 1998. Fisheries bioeconomics. Theory, modelling and management. FAO technical papers, 368. Rome, 108 pp.

Sethi, S.A., T.A. Branch and R. Watson. – 2010. Fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level. PNAS, 107: 12163-12167. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1003236107 PMid:20566867 PMCid:2901455

Sumaila, U.R., A. Marsden, R. Watson and D. Pauly. – 2007. A Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Construction and Applications. J. Bioecon., 9: 39-51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10818-007-9015-4

Watson, R and D. Pauly. – 2001. Systematic distortions in world fisheries catch trends. Nature., 414: 534-536. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35107050 PMid:11734851

Watson, R., A. Kitchingman, A. Gelchu and D. Pauly. – 2004. Mapping global fisheries: sharpening our focus. Fish Fish., 5: 168-177. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2004.00142.x

World Bank. – 2008. The Sunken Billions. The economic justification for fisheries reform, Rome.

Worm, B., E.B. Barbier, N. Beaumont, J.E. Duffy, C. Folke, B.S. Halpern, J.B.C. Jackson, H.K. Lotze, F. Micheli, S.R. Palumbi, E. Sala, K.A. Selkoe, J.J. Stachowicz and R. Watson. – 2006. Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services. Science, 314: 787-790. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1132294 PMid:17082450

Worm, B., R. Hilborn, J.K. Baum, T.A. Branch, J.S. Collie, C. Costello, M.J. Fogarty, E.A. Fulton, J.A. Hutchings, S. Jennings, O.P. Jensen, H.K. Lotze, P.M. Mace, T.R. McClanahan, C. Minto, S.R. Palumbi, A.M. Parma, D. Ricard, A.A. Rosenberg, R. Watson and D. Zeller. – 2009. Rebuilding Global Fisheries. Science, 325: 578-585. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1173146 PMid:19644114

Zeller, D. and D. Pauly. – 2005. Good news, bad news: global fisheries discards are declining, but so are total catches. Fish Fish., 6: 156-159. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2005.00177.x