Modelización de la explotación sucesiva y posible colapso de las pesquerías marinas por medio de la globalización económica, cambio climático y alternativas de gestión
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2011.75n4779Palabras clave:
modelización de pesquerías, explotación secuencial, globalización económica, cambio climático, gestión de pesqueríasResumen
La producción pesquera mundial ha superado su máximo potencial y parece estar en declive. Esta tendencia es el resultado de una sucesión de desarrollo, sobreexplotación, agotamiento, y en algunos casos, colapso de los stocks pesqueros individuales. Este proceso conecta recursos distantes a nivel geográfico. Esta secuencia es a menudo atribuida al efecto combinado de una gestión deficiente, consideraciones económicas y efectos ambientales pero la influencia de cada uno de estos factores suele ser difícil de determinar. En el presente trabajo hemos utilizado un modelo bioeconómico global para explorar los efectos conjuntos de la variabilidad climática, presiones económicas y medidas de gestión para producir o evitar esta secuencia. El modelo muestra como una combinación de variabilidad de origen climático en los stocks, el aumento de la demanda de productos marinos y una gestión deficiente es capaz de dirigir las pesquerías mundiales a través de un proceso de desarrollo, sobreexplotación, colapso y recuperación similar a los patrones observados. Además, mostramos cómo el patrón secuencial de sobreexplotación puede emerger como una propiedad endógena de la interacción entre fluctuaciones regionales y un mercado globalizado. Esta situación es evitable con una gestión adaptativa de los recursos que asegure la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de producción regionales en un contexto de cambio y mercados globales. Se concluye con que una gestión global de los recursos es necesaria para garantizar la óptima producción de productos de origen marino y la conservación de los ecosistemas.
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