Modelling the spatial population structure and distribution of the queen conch, Aliger gigas, on the Pedro Bank, Jamaica

Ricardo A.  Morris; Alvaro  Hernández-Flores; Alfonso  Cuevas-Jimenez

doi:10.3989/scimar.05269.040

Autores/as

Ricardo A. Morris Universidad Marista de Mérida https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4759-5366
Alvaro Hernández-Flores Universidad Marista de Mérida https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1900-9868
Alfonso Cuevas-Jimenez Universidad Marista de Mérida https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8230-5021

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.05269.040

Palabras clave:

análisis espacial, especies sedentarias, distribución con ceros inflados, modelos de distribución de especies

Resumen

Las estimaciones de índices de abundancia relativa para evaluar poblaciones de especies sedentarias requieren tener en cuenta su estructura espacial, el diseño del muestreo y el alto número de ceros registrados a la hora del muestreo. Para obtener un índice confiable de abundancia para el gasterópodo Aliger gigas en Pedro Bank, Jamaica, se aplicaron siete técnicas de interpolación espacial a tres conjuntos de datos: kriging ordinario (OK), kriging con desviación externa (KED), modelo aditivo generalizado binomial negativo (NBGAM), NBGAM más OK (NBGAM+OK), modelo mixto aditivo general (GAMM), GAMM más OK (GAMM+OK) y modelo binomial negativo con ceros inflados (ZINB). La selección de los mejores modelos espaciales se basó en el criterio de validación cruzada con 10 iteraciones; asimismo, se aplicaron métodos de evaluación comúnmente usados, para destacar la importancia de tener en cuenta la estructura espacial de la distribución de la especie. Los mejores modelos fueron GAMM y ZINB, los cuales fueron fuertemente influenciados por el diseño de muestreo, el tamaño de muestra, el coeficiente de variación y la calidad de las covariables empleadas en la modelación (ubicación geográfica, profundidad y hábitat). Los índices de abundancia más confiables pueden contribuir a mejorar las evaluaciones y desarrollar el manejo espacial con enfoque de ecosistema.

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Citas

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