Probabilidades de supervivencia de la tortuga boba (Caretta caretta) estimadas a partir de datos de Caputra-marcado-recaptura en el Mar Mediterráneo
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2007.71n2365Palabras clave:
tortuga boba, supervivencia, captura-marcado-recaptura, Mediterráneo, modelo de BarkerResumen
Las probabilidades de supervivencia de la tortuga boba (Caretta caretta) se han estimado por primera vez en el Mediterráneo analizando datos de 3254 marcajes y 134 recapturas en esta región. La mayoría de las tortugas eran juveniles encontrados en el mar. Las recapturas fueron reavistamientos de individuos vivos y recuperaciones de individuos muertos. Los datos se analizaron mediante el modelo de Baker, versión modificada del de Cormack-Jolly-Seber que puede combinar recaptura, reavistamientos de individuos vivos e individuos recuperados muertos. Se obtuvo una probabilidad de supervivencia anual de 0.73 (IC 95% = 0.67-0.78; n=3254), y debe considerarse como una estima conservativa debido a una desconocida, aunque no insignificante, tasa de perdida de marcados. Este estudio ofrece una estima preliminar de las probabilidades de supervivencia de los estadios de desarrollo “en el mar” para la población mediterránea amenazada de tortuga boba marina, y proporciona las primeras observaciones sobre la magnitud de la sospechada mortalidad inducida por el hombre en la región. El modelo, utilizado aquí por primera vez en tortugas marinas podría ser utilizado para obtener estimas de supervivencia a partir de otros datos con pocas o sin recapturas reales, pero con otros tipos de datos de recaptura frecuentemente producidos por programas de marcado de estos animales de amplia distribución.
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