Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions

M. F. Borges; A. M. P. Santos; N. Crato; H. Mendes; B. Mota

doi:10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1235

Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions

Authors

M. F. Borges Instituto de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar (IPIMAR)
A. M. P. Santos Instituto de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar (IPIMAR)
N. Crato Department of Mathematics, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
H. Mendes Instituto de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar (IPIMAR)
B. Mota Instituto de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar (IPIMAR)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2003.67s1235

Keywords:

sardine, Sardina pilchardus, regime shifts, time series analysis, catch, recruitment, Portugal, wind, coastal upwelling, NAO

Abstract

Decadal changes have been observed in the annual catch of sardine (Sardina pilchardus W). Long-term changes have also been observed in alongshore winds off Portugal in the last decades in winter months. During sardine spawning season (winter), northerly winds that favour upwelling led to unfavourable conditions for egg and larval survival. By using time series analysis, we investigated the effect of wind conditions and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the sardine catches, in the period from 1946-1991. We also investigated the time lag between recruitment strength and its turnout in catches. We concluded that recruitment is forced to a lower level when the frequency and intensity of northerly wind exceeds a certain limit in winter. Our time series retrospective analyses led to evidence of climatic driven regime-shifts in West Portugal sardine productivity in late 1960s-early 1970s. These results are discussed in terms of their implications in fisheries management plans.

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Author Biography

B. Mota, Instituto de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar (IPIMAR)

Instituto de Ciência Aplicada e Tecnologia (ICAT)/Dept. Física FCUL

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Published

2003-04-30

How to Cite

Borges MF, Santos AMP, Crato N, Mendes H, Mota B. Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions. Sci. mar. [Internet]. 2003Apr.30 [cited 2025May1];67(S1):235-44. Available from: https://scientiamarina.revistas.csic.es/index.php/scientiamarina/article/view/523

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Issue

Vol. 67 No. S1 (2003)

Section

Articles

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